Better-Than-Average Effect

Ask a room of drivers to rate their driving, and nearly every hand goes up for "above average." Ask them about their honesty, their intelligence, their manners — same hands. Statistically, half the room is wrong. It is never the half that is raising hands.

The mechanics are flattering. We judge ourselves by our intentions, which we know intimately, and others by their actions, which we barely see. My full context makes me reasonable; your summary makes you average.

Notice also where the hand goes down. On difficult, objective skills — chess against a clock, for instance — people suddenly rate themselves below average. The bias inflates where measurement is vague and deflates where measurement is exact.

The humble use: when you rank yourself against others on anything unmeasured, apply a discount. The confident hand in the air is not evidence. It is the bias, waving.