Lake Wobegon Effect

In Garrison Keillor's fictional town of Lake Wobegon, "all the children are above average." The joke lands because the town is everywhere: every school, company, and family believes its own are above the norm — a statistical impossibility, universally believed.

The mechanism is measurement by proximity. We compare our own to the few we know, not to the full field. The local champion looks like a world champion until the regional final. The good local restaurant is "the best" because the comparison set is three streets.

The error is pleasant but not harmless. The town that believes all its children are above average stops improving its schools. The firm that believes its people are the best stops training them.

So widen the comparison set on purpose. Read the best work in your field, visit the best-run operation you can find, measure against the real distribution. It stings briefly. Then it calibrates. The comfort of the small pond is warm; the open water is where the swimming is learned.