Risky Shift Effect

Put cautious individuals in a group to decide together, and the group's decision often comes out riskier than any member's private judgment. The committee gambles where each member would have walked.

The mechanism is responsibility diluted by headcount. Alone, the decision is yours — its failure has your name on it. In a group, the blame, if it comes, will be distributed — and the anticipation of shared blame loosens everyone's caution. There is also persuasion by the bold: the risk-tolerant speak with more flavour than the careful, and flavour carries meetings.

Watch for the signature: the proposal that no one would sign alone, approved by everyone together. "We decided" is sometimes the sound of no one deciding.

The safeguard is to restore personal ownership: before the vote, have each member write their private position and its reasons. The written record re-attaches names to judgments. Risk chosen with full ownership is courage. Risk chosen by diffusion is just the sum of everyone's hope that someone else is watching.